Kerbal Powers Forums

ST. ARC; DECEMBER 2209
    
TOP SECRET - KONSTANTIN
    

    
MEMORANDUM FOR:     Sevastian Kasparov     First Consul, United Imperial Federation
    
VIA:     G.S. Langlais     Under Secretary, Office of Astral Intelligence
    
FROM:     Valeri Ghorkov     Chief of Station, Fedithe F.O.
    
SUBJECT: URGENT - Basil-Irsmun Offensive Against Pan-Veiidic Commonwealth Anticipated Within 48 Hours and UIF Sovereignty Threatened
    

1. Basil Armed Forces expenditure has topped √60 million in FY2209 with an estimated national industrial production at √54 million TFY, representing 67% of national Gross Domestic Product; supplemented by the Beyazkale military-industrial complex producing √79 million in FY2209, the craft value of the Basil-Irsmun Axis is estimated to exceed √480 million in FY2210. The Irsmuncastine and Sarkizyan industries are entirely subsumed to the Basilite war economy. Joint state planning implies a continued commitment to total war above the regional level, growing to involve every great power in the hemispheric region.

   1. Neither the Basilic nor Irsmuncastine war economies are sustainable in the near term without seizing assets from their adversaries. GDP growth has plummeted to -5% per year under autarky and several regions of Basil are experiencing famine conditions. Coupled with embargos from the IU, PVC, and Kolus Coalition, a Basilic economic collapse is expected before 2115.

   2. Immense military-industrial capacity at present and preceding economic collapse by mid-decade suggests Basil will imminently commence rapid strategic offensives in order to terminate the war on favorable terms before the onset of collapse.

       
2. Intelligence failures between the Imperial Union and Pan-Veiidic Commonwealth have alerted Basil to the latter’s alignment to the IU, and Basil-Irsmun Axis military posturing suggests a pre-emptive invasion of the PVC after New Years 2210. The expansion of the conflict to the PVC will militarily involve every power in the Baskay region and open a second front of the war via the western Irsmuncastine border.

   1. A reliable land connection between Basil and Irsmuncast will be a strategic goal for Axis command, as neither Basil nor Irsmuncast operate air and naval transport in sufficient quantities to reinforce the front by alternative means. Basilic pressure for a land corridor will jeopardize the sovereignty of the UIF as a neutral power in the Baskay conflict.

   2. The sovereignty of Fortis will be significantly jeopardized, as the great power conflict will involve every nation bordering Fortis.

       
3. The Basil Troika has not inherited the same positive outlook toward the UIF as the former civilian government. Several key Junta officers view their UIF contemporaries as geriatric and decadent, citing our de-industrialization and aging population crises as proof that the UIF would be an ineffective fighting force in a modern great power conflict. The pro-UIF faction urges restraint only on the basis of “fratricide” from previous friendship, moderating their strategic outlook only on a surface level. The anti-UIF faction teeters on animosity and contempt.

   1. The contemporary outlook of President Suminski towards the UIF is in stark contrast to the previous civil administration, and his lack of confidence in UIF Army & Air Force capability suggests the Troika will be significantly more willing to apply military pressure against the UIF in order to guarantee their strategic goals.

       
   RECOMMENDATIONS:
       
4. Continue transitioning of the UIF civilian economy through a partial military mobilization in accordance with the legislation passed by the States-General.

   1. Successful prioritizing of industrial tasks will allow the UIF to match Basilic military output by the end of the year and strengthen our hand in diplomatic talks, best guaranteeing our neutrality in the Baskay conflict.

   2. Expect UIF economic growth to stagnate in the near future with the war posturing coupled with the system-wide recession caused by the Baskay conflict.

       
5. Comprehensive review of the UIF Armed Forces with specific emphasis on the Army and Air Forces in TAUCOM for a conventional great power conflict.

   1. Anticipate probability of the war entering the Tau Sea if Irsmuncastine units sortie from Ur against IU-aligned forces.

   2. AROW and OAI Sections are on standby in Fortis, Nautilus, and Juno for Black Chamber Operations.

       
6. Anticipate a Basil-Irsmun invasion of the PVC within the next 48 hours and prepare a Defence Scheme for Fortis and Newseria against armed incursion.

   1. Anticipate probability of further escalation against Newseria, Gorodsky, Gagriel, and Konig to be Possible; probability of declaration of total war against the UIF to be Plausible; probability of military incursion into Fortis to be Likely.

   2. Issue a Warning Order to the UIF Army II and III Corps, 10th Cavalry (Reserve), 11th Armored (Reserve) and 12th Expeditionary (Reserve) effective immediately.

       
       
   Sincerely,
   
   G.S. Langlais
   Office of Astral Intelligence Headquarters, St. Arc, Aenia