Confidential
Autfail 04, 2217
AONTAN SPECIAL FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE REPORT ON THE FUTURE OF SOUTHERN KAFRAIC
Viewing restricted to: Office of the Aontan President
Origin: Special Foreign Relations Committee - 49th Iteration Convened Gardo 17 - Autfail 04 2217.
Subject: Expected political collapse of the Stalsieg regime in southern Kafraic and recommended responses to incipient armed factions.
The 49th Special Foreign Relations Committee consists of the heads and members of the State Department of Aontas and those of the equivalent agencies of its constituent federal subjects. They are joined by Grand Senate policymakers on several foreign policy caucuses, and advised by the chief ranking officers of the branches of the Federal Armed Forces.
The complete embargo in place against the Stahlsieg-led (SS) regime in southern Kafraic, which refers to itself as the “Union of Suid-Kafrican States” since its inception in 2106 has succeeded in its economic and political objectives as laid out in SB
To leverage the geography of the territories governed by Aontas, terrestrial and maritime, to prevent the shipment of any and all goods into the SS-claimed region and restrict avenues of trade.
By doing so, set an example of opposition among the international community and encourage further diplomatic isolation.
To prevent the growth of local industry and economic development at large, and to stifle the purchasing power of the Stahlsieg.
To exacerbate the socioeconomic conditions conducive to unrest and popular desire for political change in southern Kafraic.
Analyses of the pre-embargo economic output of the region and historical growth projections have assessed the efficacy of the Aontan embargo as having produced a 35% reduction in profits from trade, as well as hampering GDP growth by as much as 23% of the projected no-embargo scenario. The recent uprising of the Free Kafrican Army and the abolition of the Imperial colony of Svarskia in 2114 has further isolated the Stahlsieg, restricting the flow of legal trade to the border with the United States of Central Kafrica.
In the recent months, the SS and FKA have exchanged fire along several border checkpoints, and paramilitary groups from either side have been reported infiltrating the other to sabotage local infrastructure. These attacks have been shown to have an inciting affect among the native Grestinian population. Localised civil disobedience events, including protests, striking, rioting have become weekly occurrences.
Under such internal and external pressures, it is the opinion of the Committee that such a collapse of the SS-led regime should occur WITHIN THE NEXT 5 YEARS. A protracted civil conflict marked by ethnic and partisan violence is the likely outcome.
Orbital Intelligence has kept track of weapons stockpiles and military sites over the past 7 years, and has identified an additional three locations within the past months. On paper, the Stahlsieg regime in southern Kafraic possesses the largest military in the region following the organization’s flight to the region after being outlawed by the Confederacy of Kolus. Of the estimated 496 units in the SS inventory, only around 83 land and aircraft are able to be maintained at full combat readiness under current conditions. Should the region fracture as predicted, these supplies would become hotly contested and enable insurgent groups to become well equipped.
The following is a list of known and anticipated factions that are likely to become involved in such a conflict along with the recommended foreign policy responses towards them.
The Stahlsieg Regime in Faucks
If a collapse of the predicted extent is to occur, the Stahlsieg led regime will likely maintain control of the a major cities of Sopost, Boksburg and the area around Nuut Dinsmark from which it gathers most of its support, as well as the fortified mountainous region surrounding its seat in Faucks and the transit networks between them.
While our goal is and always has been the removal of the Stahlsieg, it is important that no direct action be taken against them in the opening phases of such a conflict. The Faucks government is regrettably partially recognized internationally as the “Union of Suid-Kafrikan States” and has correctly identified the purpose of our embargo against them as a means to an eventual regime change. In the interest of preserving international support for our goals in southern Kafraic, any action against the Stahlsieg must be precipitated by an attack against Aontas by that party.
We additionally believe that the paranoid ideology of the Stahlsieg when combined with the circumstances outlined above makes such an attack more likely to materialize. For this reason, we recommend reinforcing local garrisons and increasing their readiness levels above normal, as well as educating and preparing civilians in Cabrai for such an event.
Breakaway SS and Kroster extremists
There are those within the Stahlsieg government that view the organization’s transition to a governing body, seeking to legitimize itself on the world stage by presenting a more palatable image, as an abomination. Not content with what they view as a complacent administration that tolerates the existence of non-Kroster peoples, a significant portion of the 6th SS “Braviserstgeboren” has the potential to defect in order to personally see out their vision.
Aontan intelligence has been monitoring members of the SS high command and believes the individual most likely to do so and attract a significant following is Gruppenführer Jan Heusinkveld who has made public statements declaring apartheid to be insufficient and urging “a return to the glory days of honourable combat and ethnic purification.”
Should this faction attempt to secede and make enemies of the Faucks government, we believe that the Aontan armed forces would be justified in moving against them directly without drawing too much ire. The committee recommends that Aontas pursue this route against all other Violent Ideological Supremacist Entities (VISEs) in order to eliminate imminent threats to civilians.
Aontan Separatist Factions
Ethnically Aontan Cabrai people constitute a significant minority population in the Sopost and Nura regions of southern Kafraic, and are the majority population in Féareva, Tríllian and Caolfort counties ceded to the Newest Grestin Republic in 2153. If it is the interest of the people of those counties that they should seek accession to the Cabrai Autonomous Region of Tekkia in order to ensure their self-determination and safety from ethnic violence, then such a request should be granted.
Intelligence has identified at least 7 prominent Aontan-identified cells in the region with an estimated combined membership in the thousands. It is the opinion of the committee that such groups that demonstrate alignment with Aontan principles and interests should additionally receive military shipments and funding if deemed necessary for their protection.
Arm Fior Aontas
The AFA is a chapter of the Aontan Republican Army and has been active in the area for decades. In recent years they have used their status as a previously established organization to capitalize on unrest created by the Stahlsieg presence and fill their ranks. They are explicitly separatist in their aims and are likely to become the predominant Aontan faction.
Extremist Aontan Organizations
In the case of a military intervention, Aontas should ensure that armed Aontan-identified VISEs do not receive such support, are directly opposed, and are contained to areas where they do not pose a threat to Kerbal life. One of the above identified cells is the Saoirse Gorm (“Free Blues”) operating out of the Átharul neighborhood in Nura.
Strelkan Moderate Factions
It should be anticipated that among communities with sizable Strelkan or Kroster populations that local militias will arise for their protection. There is also the potential that some of these groups may seek to form a united front with Grestinian democratic factions. Ultimately these groups should not pose much of a threat and our doctrine towards them should simply be to monitor their development.
Grestinian Separatist Factions
The ultimate goal of Aontan conduct in southern Kafraic is the pursuit of a system that allows for the self-determination of all peoples under a majority-rule government that additionally ensures the rights of ethnic minorities. In the event of a civil war, native Grestinian factions will likely constitute the bulk of involved parties and show the greatest ideological diversity.
Free Kafrican Army
The Free Kafrican Army is the first extant faction in this category, governing Svarskia from 2212 following their uprising against Orinian colonial rule which happened concurrently with the Rhudbeal War. The FKA will likely retain the role of a partner of convenience during a collapse as it was during that war. Aontas should be open to negotiations and sharing intelligence with this faction.
Grestinian Supremacist and Extremist Organizations
Beginning with the Tekkian-Kroman invasion of Grestin in 2083, Grestin has endured a turbulent cycle of independence and foreign rule. Twice in the first half of the 2100s, Grestinians succeeded in gaining independence only to have it stripped from them years later. While all Grestinian resistance movements cite colonial grievances and see the Faucks regime as a continuation of their “Century of Humiliation,” none feel more personally wronged than the Grestinian far-right.
With the re-unification of Grestin in 2153, these groups largely disbanded or went underground, committing occasional terrorist attacks against Strelkan politicians and communities including the infamous 2162 Nuut-Dinsmark Mlorbanist Congregation Shooting. With the rise of the SS, these groups have reached levels of organization and activity not seen since the 2140s.
Some of these have coalesced around the label Grestia Revanchisa, envisioning a unified Kafraic free of Strelkan, Tekkian and Kroman minorities. As with the breakaway SS and Kroster extremist factions, these groups constitute immediate threats to Kerbal life and should be directly intervened against.
Newest Grestin Restorationists
The general consensus and most easily conceptualized model for desired change in the minds of the Grestinian population in southern Kafraic is a return to the pre-Drimp status quo. The resentment towards Faucks and the imposition of apartheid has resulted in the creation of robust community and mutual-aid networks.
However, the state surveillance apparatus of the Stahlsieg regime has succeeded in forcing potential insurgent cells to remain small, disconnected and disunited. In Laeraise of this year, the SS announced the dismantling of a cell outside Boksburg, citing its individual membership of 173 kerbals.
In the event of an uprising, these groups will seek each other out and have the highest potential to form a unified and cohesive front. As the group that aligns the most with our interests in the region, Aontas should be ready and willing to assist them in that coordination and providing intelligence.
Grestinian Leftist Factions
Aontan intelligence is aware of two potential ideological centers that could give rise to left-of-center and far-left armed groups that could come into direct conflict with the other moderate faction.
The first of these is the industrial town of Bodle, home to a long-standing automotive and steel-processing industry. Prior to the invasion by the SS, Bodle had a strong union culture within which some chapters secured the right to organize armed defense of their workplaces. The SS has since stamped down on these groups and dissolved their contracts, resulting in occasional armed clashes. The potential for conflict with the moderate factions arises from an unwillingness from the latter to restore and respect their previous arrangements. The committee does not believe they pose much of a threat.
The other and more extreme element arises from the old Arcadian settlement of Aramore within USCK territory. Although the Arcadians have long since abandoned the city, what Stihlovist ideas deemed compatible with the Grestinian way of life have survived in all but name. The most ideologically motivated, calling themselves the “Social National Army of Grestin” could comprise volunteer organizations and cross the border into southern Kafraic, taking advantage of the chaos there to spread the Stihlovist cause. Such efforts would likely be mostly directed against the Stahlsieg, but may also contest the holdings of the Free Kafrican Army. The committee does not believe that they possess the numbers or equipment required to affect much change.
Role of the USCK
Tolerating its existence in exchange for domestic safety from the threat of Strelkan militias, the United States of Central Kafrica is the principal backer of the Faucks regime. The USCK was the first nation to recognize the regime and has on occasion supplied them with weapons.
It may be that the USCK could seize on the opportunity to dismantle the remnant left in the wake of the Drimp crisis and restore the former borders of Grestin. In this case, we should welcome their cooperation and seek to work with them against the Stahlsieg. This presents a satisfactory option provided it is the will of the majority of the region’s population and armed representatives.
Should the USCK prove loyal to the Stahlsieg and intervene directly on their behalf, the Aontan Air Force should pursue an immediate expansion of its air campaign to destroy as many Stahlsieg military sites as possible before the arrival of Central Kafrican forces. [/indent]
Imperial Union of Orion, Westray and Celeste
Aontas should be opposed to attempts by the Imperial Union to restore the former Svarskia colony. Previous abuses by the Imperial administration, directly cited by the FKA in their declaration of independence have proven them an untrustworthy steward. Should an Imperial invasion occur, Aontas should be open to supplying regional Grestinian factions. In any case, direct conflict with the IU should be avoided.
Arcovii-Zokesian Confederation
The Arcovii-Zokesian Confederation, Zokesia in particular, has had a complicated relationship with the SS. While officially outlawed since 2142, the Confederation’s characteristic lack of regulations on its corporate military industrial complex partners allows for the possibility of equipment sales to the Stahlsieg. The procurement of weapons systems from PLAID during the Nuriyamiq war is direct evidence of this.
A direct intervention by the Confederation is likely to be in the pursuit of securing Zokesian interests in the region, particularly the protection of the Zokesian minority in Sopost and what remains of the diplomatic community established there during the Zokesian administration of the city.
It is also possible that the Confederacy will seek an end to the Stahlsieg and intervene against them, in which case Aontas should welcome their cooperation. Aontas should be in prior dialog with the Confederation regarding our intervention in the region.
United Imperial Federation
The United Imperial Federation’s interests in the region can be summarised as the defense of its outpost in Fortmil. Intervention from this party is deemed unlikely unless the island comes under threat, which is also an unlikely occurrence. As a close partner, Aontas should also be in dialog with the UIF regarding its intentions in the region.
